For the Eternal Optimist

Ok, I admit the Sens chances of making the playoffs are all but impossible. They'd have to go on a sick run the likes of which Sens fans haven't seen since....well...the beginning of last season after the Cup run. All you hear about in the media these days are stories about a Glimmer of Hope. How if the Sens make it to 94 points, by only losing 1 game the rest of the regular season, that should be enough. For this Ottawa Senators team to run the board the rest of the way, with a rookie goalie and 3 games against the Bruins....well...calling it a longshot would be a massive understatement. It would take a miracle.

So, they say we'd need to get to 94 points, eh? Win 15 of the last 16 games, eh?? Well, I tested the theory. Here's my criteria:

I simulated the rest of the games featuring Eastern Conference teams. Based on the standings today, I assumed a 5th place team would beat a 7th place team, 4th would beat 6th, 11th would beat 14th, etc. I also assumed that if a 5th place team played a 6th place team, it would end in OT or a shootout. (Same with 1st vs 2nd, 10th vs 11th, 14th vs 15th, etc). In inter-conference match-ups, I gave the win to whichever team had more points. If both teams were within 1 point of each other, I assumed it would end in OT or a shootout. (This never actually happened). My final assumption, and this is the big one....would be that the Ottawa Senators lose only one game, against the Bruins.

You ready?

Here we go:

Final Regular Season Standings 2008-2009

1 Boston Bruins 119 pts.
2 New Jersey Devils 118 pts.
3 Washington Capitals 116 pts
4 Philadelphia Flyers 107 pts
5 Montreal Canadiens 99 pts
6 Pittsburg Penguins 95 pts
7 OTTAWA SENATORS 94 pts*
8 Florida Panthers 94 pts*

9 Carolina Hurricanes 91 pts
10 New York Rangers 84 pts
11 Buffalo Sabres 82 pts
12 Toronto Maple Laffs 74 pts
13 Atlanta Thrashers 62 pts
14 Tampa Bay Lightning 60 pts
15 New York Islanders 53 pts

This doesn't take into account a number of things, working both for and against Ottawa. On the downside: There will likely be more OT and shootout games played, so this is a big guess. I had 12 games go into OT or the shootout, so I don't know how accurate that will end up being, but I assume there'll be more. Very hard to tell.

On the plus side, Tampa Bay only wins 2 games for the rest of the season according to my system, and the Islanders merely get 1 point in a shootout loss to the Bolts. If the bottom dwelling teams pick up the slack and win a lot more games than I've indicated, this works heavily into Ottawa's favour, and could (COULD!) afford them the opportunity to maybe, just maybe....lose twice?

Anyways, there you have it, a reason for all you Sens fans to cheer every game from here on out, instead of being ironically bitter every time they win because we're all excited about having Tavares in a Sens jersey.

*(Ottawa and Florida were REALLY tied after all this. They both had 42 wins on the season, and split the season series 2-2. Since I don't really want to calculate goal differential, I'll give Ottawa the win, since one of their losses to Florida was an OT loss. So Ottawa got a 5 points out of a possible 8, and Florida got 4 points.)